№ 001 · DASH · 2026 · v0.4

Prior odds, posterior work.

A working notebook by Elvis Liu — risk control, forecasting, and the tools to do better. The point is calibration, not certainty.

Brier · cum

0.18

↘ 0.02

Open claims

23

+2 wk

Hit rate

62%

↗ 4 pts

Edge Σ

+0.11

since open

Services

3/3

all green

Code in progress, writing in progress, calibration on the record.

Chronological. Roles, education, selected work.

Self-hosted Open WebUI — where the AI tooling actually lives.

Direct mail. I read everything; I reply to most.

Featured priors SYNTHETIC · LIVE LEDGER IN /notebook

Symbol	Claim	Prior	P′	ΔP
PM:RATE-Q3	Fed cut by Q3	0.42	0.55	+0.13
PM:CLAUDE-5	Anthropic ships Claude 5 EOY	0.62	0.71	+0.09
PM:AGI-EOY	Frontier lab claims AGI EOY	0.18	0.12	-0.06
PM:ELEC-26	US 2026 incumbent party retains	0.54	0.61	+0.07

About /bio --short

Recovering internal auditor moving into risk and forecasting. I build small, self-hosted systems — ledger automation, an AI workspace, this notebook — and treat prediction markets and calibration as the lens for everything else.

For dates and firms see /cv. For the dense daily view see /notebook.