prior/odds relay ok--:--:--
notebook.md
№ 001 · DASH · 2026 · v0.4

# Prior odds,
posterior work.

A working notebook by Elvis Liu — risk control, forecasting, and the tools to do better. The point is calibration, not certainty.

Recovering internal auditor → risk & forecasting. I build small self-hosted systems and treat prediction markets as the lens for everything.
Recent entries — click to open
Colophon
2026-06-14 · NOTE · 1 min
Trust No AI
2026-06-14 · POST · 12 min
Calibration is the only honest scoreboard
— · POST · 1 min
browse all entries →
ledger.csv — featured priors
SYMBOLCLAIMPRIORP′ΔP7D
PM:RATE-Q3 Fed cut by Q3 0.42 0.55 +0.13
PM:CLAUDE-5 Anthropic ships Claude 5 EOY 0.62 0.71 +0.09
PM:AGI-EOY Frontier lab claims AGI EOY 0.18 0.12 -0.06
PM:ELEC-26 US 2026 incumbent party retains 0.54 0.61 +0.07
calibration.svg
predicted 0→1
observed · 23 pts · Brier 0.18
chat.priorodds.com — self-hosted
·self-hosted Open WebUI · model: local-claude · ready
prior/odds --:--:--
№ 001 · DASH · 2026

# Prior odds, posterior work.

A working notebook by Elvis Liu — risk control, forecasting, and the tools to do better. The point is calibration, not certainty.

Recovering internal auditor → risk & forecasting. Small self-hosted systems, prediction markets as the lens.
Recent entries
Colophon
2026-06-14 · NOTE · 1 min
Trust No AI
2026-06-14 · POST · 12 min
Calibration is the only honest scoreboard
— · POST · 1 min
browse all entries →