№ 001 · PRIOR/ODDS · 2026
Prior odds, posterior work.
I'm Elvis Liu — recovering internal auditor → risk & forecasting. I build small self-hosted systems and treat prediction markets as the lens for everything. The point is calibration, not certainty.
№ 002 · EVIDENCE · THE UPDATE
EVIDENCE
A prior is just an opening bet. The whole craft is what you do when the world pushes back — narrow the distribution, move the odds, and say by how much.
- 01 Start with a number Not a feeling. A probability you'd actually put money behind.
- 02 Let the world push back New data, a surprise, a miss — evidence has weight.
- 03 Move the odds Update, and write down by exactly how much.
- 01 Calibration over confidence A loud take is worthless if your 70%s only land half the time.
- 02 Small bets, all logged Every call gets a number, a date, and nowhere to hide.
- 03 Self-host the loop Own the tools and the data. No SaaS between me and the work.
- 04 Evidence over vibes Update when the world pushes back, not when it feels good.
- 05 Wrong in public A scoreboard only counts if you can't quietly edit it later.
Not louder. Better calibrated.
№ 004 · POSTERIOR · THE RECORD
A track record,
orbiting.
Every claim is a probability that moved. hover a node.
open the notebook →- NOTEBOOK Private notebook Where the thinking lives — plain markdown, versioned, mine.
- BRAIN Forecasting brain A retrieval layer over everything I've read and saved.
- GATEWAY Chat gateway One self-hosted door to the models I actually use.
- WORKSPACE Code workspace A browser IDE, so I can build from anywhere.
- SITE This site Astro, hand-built, WebGL — no tracker, no cookie.
№ 007 · THE SCOREBOARD
Predicted, then observed.
On the diagonal, your 70%s come true 70% of the time. The gap is the lesson — and it's left in public to age.
- PM:RATE-Q3 Fed cut by Q3 0.42→0.55 +0.13
- PM:CLAUDE-5 Anthropic ships Claude 5 EOY 0.62→0.71 +0.09
- PM:AGI-EOY Frontier lab claims AGI EOY 0.18→0.12 -0.06
- PM:ELEC-26 US 2026 incumbent party retains 0.54→0.61 +0.07
№ 008 · POSTERIOR ODDS
Bet with me, not
against the evidence.
Working on forecasting, risk, or self-hosted AI? I like a good prior and a sharper posterior.