№ 003 · CV · CHRONOLOGICAL · 2026 v0.4
Risk, forecasting, and the tools to do better.
Internal-audit background moving into risk and forecasting. I build small, self-hosted systems for the workflow I actually use day-to-day — ledger automation, an AI workspace, a working notebook — and treat prediction markets and calibration as the lens for everything else.
A point estimate is a lossy summary. A CV is too — read it as a density, not a hard line.
| # | Project | Description | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | priorodds-site ↗ | This site. Single-page editorial layout with a Bayesian working-notebook identity — kinetic prior→posterior hero, posterior SVG curve, data-driven calibration board. Ships as a single ~60 KB HTML payload. Astro 5TailwindCloudflare Pages | 2026 |
| 02 | aistack ↗ | Self-hosted multi-tenant AI workspace. Open WebUI front end, code-server IDE, and an Anthropic-compatible relay so one subscription powers every internal service. Runs on a single Hetzner CPX22; friend tenant on an isolated key prefix. Open WebUIcode-serversub2api relayDocker ComposeHetzner | 2026 |
| 03 | elvis-ledger ↗ | Discord → Beancount personal-finance bot. Send a line like "咖啡 35" in chat; an LLM parses it into a valid beancount entry, bean-check validates, the bot commits to a private GitHub repo, and a Fava web UI renders the books in real time. PythonBeancountDiscordFavaFly.io | 2025 |
This CV is the source of truth for dates, roles, and selected work. For the narrative version see /notebook. For anything not listed here, reach me at hi@priorodds.com.